Thursday, October 9, 2008

Shut Up and Lead

I was having lunch today and (as usual) listening more to the conversation behind me than the one I was in. I know - it's a bad habit - I'm working on it - yada, yada ....

Anyway, there were three guys sitting behind me talking about the economy. 'The stock market has lost 2 Trillion dollars in value in the last week and a half...'No banks are ever going to lend money again. 'The recession is going to last for years,' etc. By the time they asked for the check I was ready to pay their bill for them so they could just pack up their bags and march off to doomsday.

I'm probably the dumbest guy you ever met, but I don't think that's the right way to see all of this. Yes, the market is way down and that's bad. Yes, there is going to be a worldwide economic slowdown. Yes, some fortunes have been lost. I feel especially badly for people who's retirement was all in high growth stocks. Acknowledging all that, I still think there is another way to see this.

There is little question that the financial markets worldwide have been an overly efficient value-creating engine for the last several years. So much so that the value they created clearly outran the worth of the underlying companies. What we're seeing is first the acknowledgement of that and then the decrease of the markets associated with a loss of confidence in the system. It can be described with lots more words, but that's really the essence of it all.

What this means to me is that for the people with the guts to quit complaining and lead there is a massive opportunity looming. In the last several major market adjustments, going back to the depression, leaders who saw, grasped and drove opportunity created enormous wealth by getting ahead of the crowd during rebuilding. The funny thing is, I don't think that takes all that much luck or skill. I think most of these people simply chose to look for stuff to fix instead of dwelling on what was broken.

For all of us, the timing of the current market situation creates an opportunity, if we choose to see it in a different light. It's an opportunity to shut up and lead. To step up and cast a vision and give the people around us a cause for hope and to drive that energy into organizations that shine because in a time of pain and darkness they exhibit light.

To be sure, the path isn't easy. We have to be smart about the paths we take. The good news is, we are smart! We simply have to decide that we are going to focus on solutions instead of problems; on ups instead of downs. We have to take that message to the people we lead and we have to overcome the noise by showing people a way out. While the rest of the world sits around their own old town Pasadena lunch table dithering away the days with gloom and doom we'll be gathering momentum. By the time they look up, we'll be on our way. By the time they rally, we'll be gone.

I had a call today with an investor. I'm raising $5MM to get n54 moving. The guy I was talking to was in New York, in the financial center - the center of the maelstrom. He was interested in the technologies and I could tell he was intrigued, but I could also tell that he was a little troubled. We got to the end of the call and I said, "what's on your mind?" He said, 'look, I'll be honest, I think you guys have a good idea here and I think there is an opportunity. I'm just not sure what the economy means." I said, "Hey, here's the way I see it. For the companies that get their dollars now and get moving there will be an enormous opportunity. After 9/11 there were a few companies that got going fast and those companies were all big winners because the markets got everyone else distracted while they were blazing ahead. I want to do the same thing." There was a pause. He said, "that's a good way to see it and you're right."

I'm no genius and I'm not saying this to blow my horn. I'm saying it because this was a hardened investor in the middle of the market. He had every reason not to hear what I was saying. If I'd said nothing our conversations would have been over. I just took a different view and he listened. In a way I handed him a lifeline. We can all do that and if we do, we may start to crack the iced over stratosphere of potential ... At least that's the way I see it.

Onward!

Friday, October 3, 2008

Turn out the lights ... the party's over

Well, I guess, barring any major changes in direction between now and the election, I've made a decision.

It wasn't easy. As I referenced in my earlier notes I actually like both of these guys. That's a pretty major departure from the last few elections where I didn't like anyone. They're both straight shooters - or as straight as our screwed up system allows them to be. As hard as they've tried to disagree, they actually agree on more of the core issues. As different as they are, they're a lot the same. They just come at the world from two completely different places. Under different circumstances, I have a feeling they might have liked each other.

My vote won't count for much. I'm a registered republican in a democrat dominated region. When I go to the polling place on primary election days I don't have to wait in line, so there's an upside. I call myself a Lincoln republican. I guess I kind of take pride in that. In knowing what that means.

The truth though, is that I'm not sure Abe would recognize this republican party. Lincoln didn't exactly feel that the best way to ensure wealth, fairness and happiness was to leave everything up to the people. That's a misnomer. He felt that the best and most efficient way to govern was local. He wanted less power at the federal level and more power at the local level. He was neither terribly religious, nor terribly conservative. The plays he attended were usually pretty bawdy for the time. He loved to laugh and he was slow to condemn, even when he vehemently disagreed with an other's position. He freed the slaves, but he extended a free hand of reconciliation to the South. If he'd lived a lot of things would have been easier for folks below the Mason/Dixon line.

I think either John McCain or Barack Obama could make a good President. My democrat friends will sniff and look down their noses at me for that. McCain has made a career of being honorably centrist. His best friend in the senate is a democrat. He looks upon the Bush administration with real disdain. He would govern in a different way. I don't know if Obama is experienced enough to be President. Some of his statements seem very, uh, 'hopeful.' That said, he's damn smart and he's clearly a leader.

I think Joe Biden and Sarah Palin are also both good people. I hate Biden's politics. He is everything I've always opposed about the democratic party. Backed into a corner he attacks the person rather than the idea. He's done it for years and it's a part of his character. I think he was a horrible choice for Barack. Sarah Palin seems pretty straight forward. I believe her when she says she wants to work for reform. Like McCain, she's bucked the party line when she thought it was wrong. People scoff at her taking on big oil, but they shouldn't. In an oil state that took real courage.

In the end though, unless I get even more worried about a liberal landslide, I'll likely end up voting for Obama. I like his hopeful ideals. I like what his election would mean to black America and to the world. I don't vehemently disagree with most of his positions. None of these is the reason why I'd vote for him though. I'd vote for him because if John McCain dies Sarah Palin would be President, and she's not qualified. I may hate what Joe Biden stands for politically, but there is no question that he would be a capable standin in the event of a tragedy in the oval office. I admit that I worry about congress and a massive unprotected overreaction in the event of a landslide. I'm tired of being characterized as foolish by the mass of new democrats and their tide of change. I may end up voting for their man, but I do it with less enthusiasm because of the people who will also punch that ticket. That might be something to work on ...

Monday, September 8, 2008

An Interesting Couple of Months

Well how about that? Polling data out this morning indicates that John McCain and Barrack Obama have entered a statistical dead heat headed into the last two months of the campaign. Frankly I never thought that would happen.

I think two things are driving that. One, the recent conventions create a last man out dynamic that influences the polls. I doubt very much that the electorate represents the same numbers. (That's another way of saying I think the poll is wrong - but I think it may be directionally correct. The other piece is clearly the impact of the Vice Presidential candidates.

In a campaign where both candidates are competing on a platform of change, it is harder to accept Joe Biden as a VP candidate than it is to accept John McCain as a President. I honestly can't figure out why Barrack picked Biden. To me it was a horrible choice and it may cost him the election. As much as I hate Hillary, I would rather have seen him choose her. (I think he would have won in a landslide). Biden represents the old guard and has been the democrat's partisan pitbull in congress for years. McCain on the other hand has a history of reaching across the aisle to do the right thing by the electorate. They're the two old white guys. I like McCain more.

That's not to say that my mind is made up. It won't be until the debates. I would like to see a lot more substance from both sides. Obama's speech actually contained more substance than McCain's which was a surprise. Unlike most republicans, I'm not sure I'm such a huge Pallin fan. I think she did an outstanding job at the convention, but there are things about her that I don't like so much. The fact that her family is clearly experiencing some issues is high on that list, and that would be true whether she was a man or a woman.

All of this said, at the moment for me McCain is leading, but by a slim margin and that based more on his record than anything else. There was something about his "stand up America" call at the end of his speech that was really exciting. It didn't come with the emotional X factors that Obama delivered, and those are important, but it came from a man who has fought in congress for an awfully long time for what he believes in, whether his party liked it or not, and that's got to mean something.

JC

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

A Visit with History

Anyone who's read any of the stuff in my blogs knows that I am a sap for history, for anyone in the service, active or otherwise, and particularly for those situations where the two come together.

The other day I had an opportunity to visit the WW2 memorial in Washington DC. The memorial is significant and long over due. Considering that more than 5 million Americans served in World War 2 and more than 400,000 died, fighting for freedom overseas, the 50 years it took to build the memorial is cause for embarrassment. But that's not the subject ...

In my mind, World War 2, was the last easy to understand war. In World War 2 the enemy was a stated and practiced oppressor. There was ample evidence that the axis powers were in the war to one end - world domination. They believed they were better than anyone else and they were out to rule the world, killing off whomever they didn't like and taking whatever they wanted with reckless and ruthless abandon. When they thought they were strong enough and when they thought it was time, they attacked us and when this had occurred we responded.

It's really the "we" that this is about. As Americans, there is a great deal of pride in what happened in WW2. We established ourselves as a 20th century super power. We saved Europe from Germany and at the same time on the other side of the world we saved Asia from Japan. Other nations were involved and other sacrifices occurred, but in a very real way, had we not entered the war - had we chosen to remain isolated - the outcome would have been much, much different. But that's not about the "we."

The "we" is about the veterans themselves. Movies like Saving Private Ryan and Flags of our Fathers, and series like Band of Brothers give us a window into the realness of the valor of the American civilian soldier. Visiting the World War 2 memorial gives us a chance to honor them.

On the day that I was there there was a veterans flight organization there with about 100 WW2 vets. They were being escorted around the memorial by active service personnel in their combat fatigues. Some of the vets wore their uniforms. Most wore blue T-shirts with the flag and their state and the name of the organization on them. Seeing them in this place in this way, seeing them talking with the active service members, most of them crouched down in front of their counterparts' wheelchairs, was a poignant reminder of the nature of their courageous gift to the US and to the world.

Their tears, the way they listened and thanked the countless strangers who approached them and thanked them for their service, the stories they tell and the memories they share, both horrific and heroic, author a meaningful memory in an all too trite world.

This is not about whether or not wars are right. They're not, although I'm a firm believe that sometimes they are necessary. It's not about Iraq, or Obama or McCain. It's just about these guys and this place and what a special thing it is that though too long delayed, they have this place as their place and we can visit them there and thank them for the meaningful and courageous thing they did. We should.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

A Better Way to Fly

Be Afraid American Airlines, Be very Afraid

In the last seven years I’ve flown over a million miles on American Airlines and before that I spent about five years racking up more than 500,000 on United, so I know a thing or two about the American air carriers. I’ve been an all-star flyer on both, as comfortable as they can make me on the five hour flights that make my living possible on one coast with my life on the other. I’ve booked seats in coach and ridden in first so often that I’m a little stunned when the upgrades don’t go through.

I know every meal plan, a lot of the flight attendants, and even the scratches on the windows on most of the planes on the routes I fly. (These are almost always single aisle coast to coast configurations on A320s, 737s and 757s). On the routes I fly most, I’ve probably flown my last miles on the American carriers – frequent flier status be damned.

It’s not that I suddenly found a job on the west coast. That would be a dream come true, but a near term second dream was always that I would find a more comfortable way to fly. Someplace where flying was like I’d read about it when I was growing up. It was glamorous. The planes were beautiful, the people were happy, even the flight attendants seemed to like their jobs (and you didn’t hear announcements like, ‘the flight attendants are here for your safety” which seems to be an excuse for their sour faces and even more sour attitudes).

I should stop right here and say that I don’t blame the flight attendants. It’s actually the stock market’s fault that the planes are over filled and under staffed, that there is no pillow, no food and no fun of any kind on any of these flights. The flight attendants are making the best of a bad situation, so I’m not blaming them…. But back to how my dream came true.

By accident, I found Virgin America airlines, Branson’s latest US endeavor. I booked a seat on their website – which works better for a first time flier than American’s does after eight years of trying. I booked First Class – because it was cheaper than an American Coach ticket on the last minute itinerary I was buying and I went to the airport and got on the plane and my whole concept of flying changed in an instant. The flight attendant smiled and welcomed me aboard. The plane is clean and cool – like W hotel cool - with blue lighting and white seats and individually controlled TV/Movie/Music systems at every seat. There is an actual first class with enough room to open my laptop (unlike American or United), and real plugs at the seats so I can just plug straight in. (Was that really that hard to figure out?) I am flying along watching the US OPEN playoff LIVE on my fold up screen and typing away on my fully powered laptop. Heck, even the safety announcement is cool – I’ll let you find out why.

The food in first class is fresh, light and even creatively served, with mint & watermelon, grape & cheese and Meuslix appetizers served in nifty little clear square shaped cups, and fresh herbs around a nice balanced frittata with roasted tomatoes and an artichoke heart. Did I mention I’m on a plane?

What’s really astonishing is that all of these things are comparatively simple. There is really no magic in any of it. It’s just well thought out and the mission is clear. Travel should be fun and if it can’t be fun it should at least be comfortable and convenient. I still have my million mile badge on my carryon. But that’s more a reminder of what I left behind than a badge of honor. I’m hoping my next million miles are on Virgin. It’s a better way to fly.

The US Open

I should start by saying that I really didn’t want to go to the US Open. Or, I really didn’t want to go that much. Three days of traipsing around a golf course in crowds of over 140,000 watching guys walk by and periodically stop to hit or putt a ball isn’t really my idea of a good time. It was however a dream of my wife’s to go and so partly out of a sense of duty, and partly because I genuinely love to watch her have fun, I went.

We found out before we got there that we wouldn’t be able to park anywhere near the course. In fact, we had to park 13 miles away at Qualcomm Stadium. I wanted to go less. The first indication that I might be wrong was that the parking was free and comparatively well organized. Then, when we had walked all the way around the stadium to where the busses were waiting we found out that we couldn’t take cell phones. There were metal detectors, so it wasn’t a question of just hiding them. We just couldn’t take them. We would be completely out of touch for all of three days. Things were looking up even more. (Never mind that I had to take the phones back to the car and therefore had actually walked about 17 miles before we even left for the golf course).

Boarding the busses further confirmed that this wasn’t going to be like most things in America. I had thought that the person who had the idea to transport 140,000 people from a parking lot around a football field 13 miles to the golf course should be shot, but when we arrived at the busses, the boarding process was astonishingly simple, the route well planned, and the drop off point at the golf course allowed unfettered access for the teaming hoards … and hoards there were.

The good news is that for the most part, golf hoards aren’t like most kinds of hoards. They’re relatively well behaved and quiet when they should be. They encouraged the golfers – both stars and ingĂ©nues alike – in good times and bad, and – oh – my – god – there were some bad moments for these guys. With rough so deep that it was actually hard to walk through it – let alone swing a club and make contact and greens so fast they resembled wavy nonstick frying pans, the players struggled on most holes to find ways to just make par. Hey – wait a minute – that’s what I do! Maybe that’s why the US Golf Association (USGA for the acronym aware) makes the course so hard. It’s so these guys have to struggle for the same scores we do. Never mind that I’ve never shot below 80 and probably never will.

Golf is a beautiful sport. It really is. There’s something about the undulation of the fairways, the sandy bottomed bunkers, the trees, the water and the vistas that is truly regenerating. For me – more so on this day because I didn’t actually have to try and hit a ball well in front of all those people. But the players are beautiful too. There is a grace in the arch of the swing and the rise of the ball that is peaceful to watch. Better golfers even make the less graceful moments work, like when Geoff Ogilvie hit a perfect lob from not five feet in front of me straight up in the air and landed it perfectly on the edge of the green, watching it roll to within about a foot and a half of the cup. Nothing should have been easy about that shot. The grass was too long. The ball hopelessly tethered. The green falling away with less than 20 feet from edge to edge along the roll and the greased lightning fast surface - these things should all have conspired to carry the ball into the deep fringe on the other side of the hole, but will, practice and grace stopped it short and par made, Ogilvie smiled at us as he walked off the green to admiring applause and touched his hat as if to say, ‘yeah, that was pretty cool, wasn’t it?’

I’ll leave Tiger for another day … he deserves his own. But if you ever get a chance to go to a US Open, a Superbowl, a truly great concert, or anywhere else where you might get a chance to experience the magnificent, go – and please drag me along with you. I’ll bitch and scream, but I’ll pay my way and in the end we’ll smile and know we did something special.

Friday, June 6, 2008

The Power's Out

Sitting in my office in Virginia this morning. The power’s out. Yesterday afternoon several powerful thunderstorms rattled through spawning tornadoes, falling trees and generally making a mess. My computer will work until the battery dies. Sadly, this machine can work for most of the day on its battery so I have no excuse to not at least look busy.

Sitting in the office in the dark though, does make one wonder what things were like before we had all of the things we have now. On the one hand we would miss many of the conveniences we have. We would miss the entertainment, distraction of the internet, and the instant access to seemingly important information. We would absolutely miss the convenience of our cell phones. (Mine is dead by the way, battery died while it was trying in vain to find a local cell site). Basic conveniences like light and heat would be hard to live without.

On the other hand, there is an enforced slowness in an unpowered world. My office is near the entrance and I have windows, so several of the guys I work with stopped in and just sat and talked this morning. Some of the talk was about work, some wasn’t. The fact that the power was out meant there was no sense of urgency. The conversations we had about work were better. We were able to get more into depth than we would have been otherwise. The other conversations wouldn’t have happened at all.

I think at some point, in some future company, I will enforce one morning a month where all of the computers stay off. Where people are free to roam the halls and look in on one another and just say hello. I like the feeling of the place when there are no beeps, when there is not much going on. Things just feel better. People can go to lunch and when they come back the emails will still be there, and we can get back to work.